You can catch the start of a trend by trading contrary to the herd; market tops occur when the market is most bullish and important market bottoms occur, when the market is at it’s most bearish. At these turning points, a good indicator to use is the Net Traders positions realized by the CFTC. This report shows the breakdown of small specs, large specs and commercials on CME currencies. The group you are most interested in here is the commercials; they are only hedging and not motivated by greed or fear and if you have them opposite to the herd, i.e. small and large speculators, you will often see a price break in favor of the smart money commercials; it’s a simple easy to use tool and its free.